IMPULSE ANALYSES OF THE ROMANIAN INFLATION 

by Pelinescu, Elena and Dospinescu, Andrei Silviu
Published in Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 2005, volume 6 issue 4, 5-24

Abstract

This paper is organized in two parts, an overview of the evolution of inflation, highlighting the factors that influenced the persistent inflation in Romania, and a VAR model for the impulse analyses. The purpose of the paper is to present an efficient instrument for simulating and researching the short-term impact of the changes in money, foreign exchange and the impact of external shocks (such as international price of oil) on the development of inflation.

Keywords: inflation, price, forecasting and simulation, VAR
JEL Classification: E31, E37, C53, P22