Trends in Structural Changes and Convergence
in EU
by
Albu,
Lucian Liviu,
Published in Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 2008, volume 9
issue 1, 91-101
Abstract
Despite the multitude of models created, their predictions are often
contradicted by the empirical data, so that investigating macroeconomic
structural changes continues to be a challenge to economists. Based on empirical
data from countries around the world, our study tries to estimate a generic
long-run model for analysing structural changes along with the general process
of economic development. Moreover, from such a methodology a specific “EU
model” was derived. Among the results, the long-run dynamics of structural
changes seems to converge within the EU-27; the remaining problem being how long
the convergence period is. This study shows how some more detailed
interpretations could be extracted from the simulation of the model by using 3D
maps or contour plot in the case of the EU countries.
Keywords:
structural changes, non-linear model, asymptotical trajectory, stages of
economic development.
JEL Classification:
C13, C15, O11, O47
