The Dobrescu Macromodel of the Romanian Market Economy 2005 Version Yearly Forecast Spring Forecast 2011, March Estimate

by Institute for Economic Forecasting and Centre for Macroeconomic Modelling
Published in Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting
, 2011, volume 14 issue 1, 277-281

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Abstract

The macromodel estimates the short and medium-term economic implications for internal policies and changes in the international context. This version of the Romanian macromodel incorporates the experience accumulated through the utilization of its previous forms - either experimental (tested during 1991-1995) or operational (developed during 1996-2003). At the same time, it introduces some methodological and information improvements. The most significant is the structural decomposition of the economy, associated with input-output techniques. Due to the  relatively advanced stage of the transitional processes in Romania, the behavioral functions were accommodated - as much as possible - to the standard relationships.
Unlike the versions that used the statistical series beginning in 1980, the present one is based exclusively on information concerning the period 1989-2004. Therefore, we have considered more adequately naming this variant the macromodel of the Romanian market (not transition, as before) economy. In this article we present the Spring forecast for 2011.

Keywords: model, input-output analysis, econometric relationships, simulations
JEL Classification:
C5, E2,E6, H6